Big picture of state’s demographic shifts: Not a pretty picture for schools

At a recent education forum, Mike Carnathan, a researcher with the Atlanta Regional Commission, showed a startling series of slides that confirmed the suburbanization of poverty in Georgia.

The increasing and concentrated poverty portends challenges for many Georgia schools.

The ARC data reiterates a fact teachers know well: Family income remains one of strongest predictors of educational success. Middle-class kids come to school healthier and with stronger educational foundations than lower income peers.

Yet, many of the children who will be flowing into Georgia schools over the next 25 years — the state will see a big rise in younger residents  — will be poor. And an increasing percentage of them will come from homes where English is not the primary language, adding to the education hurdles.

Carnathan shared some big picture data trends at a recent forum by the Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education:

•Georgia is growing more diverse. But it is also growing poorer.

•The state’s job market is recovering; income is not. And it’s not clear why. Carnathan said it may be Georgia employers can get away with paying less. But, otherwise, he said, “Nobody has a good answer.”

•Metropolitan Atlanta has been outperforming the rest of nation in job growth for about two years now. However, Georgia’s per capita income is lower today than it was in 2000. “The nation went through the great recession and it’s recovered. Georgia just isn’t there yet…Yes, we are growing a lot, but we are also growing poor,” said Carnathan.

•Georgia is a fast growing state, growing twice as fast as the nation as a whole since 1990. In that time, Georgia has ranked 4th in new residents, behind Texas, California and Florida.

•Among metropolitan areas, metro Atlanta ranked 7th in growth since 2010; this is after a decade where Atlanta was one of three metropolitan areas adding a million more residents. Most of the growth is occurring in the second ring suburbs.

•As baby boomers age, there will be many more jobs in the healthcare sector.

•New economy jobs are hot, but these jobs overwhelmingly require at least a bachelor’s degree.

•However, some old economy jobs are hot, too. If we can align training tracks with these jobs, there are opportunities for Georgians who don’t have a college degree.

•Top jobs in Georgia based on postings by employers: Truck drivers is No. 1. The second is software developer followed by registered nurse, retail sales, sales rep, supervisor, and computer system analyst.

•When you look at the full list of posted jobs over the past year, 63 percent require at least a bachelor’s degree. By 2040, health care will be the dominant sector.

•Looking at the state’s adults now, only 28 percent now have a degree.

Where are kids being educated to higher standards so they are on track for a degree?

The ARC maps show achievement benchmarks —  strong performance in third grade reading and top high school graduation rates – correlate with household wealth.

At a recent education forum, Mike Carnathan of the ARC said Georgia is growing both larger and poorer.

At a recent education forum, researcher Mike Carnathan of the ARC said Georgia is growing in population, diversity and poverty.

The population growth in Georgia will occur in the metro areas around Atlanta, Chattanooga Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah. “The metropolitan areas are going to capture the majority of the population and the majority of the jobs. That is the nature of the game; it is a metropolitan world now,” said Carnathan.

Georgia is younger than the rest of the nation, having a slightly higher percentage of school-age children and slightly fewer older adults. Metro Atlanta also has more younger residents than the rest of the southeast.

In 1990, metro Atlanta was full of baby boomers.Today, there are more millennials than baby boomers in metro Atlanta. (1.55 million millennials to 1.25 million boomers.)

Younger Georgians are more diverse. In metro Atlanta, 60 percent of the residents 14 and under are nonwhite, compared to 30 percent of the 70 and older group.

The metro is showing a rise in young children “who will be running this place in 2040,” said Carnathan.

A lot of those young children can be found in suburban Atlanta areas with great diversity, including Gwinnett and Hall counties.

Metro Atlanta is becoming a minority majority population. Hispanic growth is occurring in the metro suburbs. When you overlay race and age, you find high numbers of children in the burgeoning Hispanic pockets in such areas as Marietta, Canton, Norcross, Buford Highway and Gainesville.

Schools reflect these new demographic realities. In the year 2000, nine of 14 school systems in metro Atlanta had majority white populations.

“Fast forward to 2014, now only five do. This is just in 14 years. This isn’t even a generation. That is how fast things are happening in our school systems,” said Carnathan.

Consider Rockdale County, he said. In 2000, Rockdale public schools were 68 percent white. Today, they are 17 percent.

“This is the pace of change our school systems are having to deal with, and it’s dizzying,” he said.

“In 1990, we are a bi-ethnic place — majority white, black, not much else,” said Carnathan. “By 2040, we are going to have a plurality of races. It’s going to be a marble cake. It’s going to have equal numbers of all races.”

Reader Comments 0

174 comments
MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

I have just posted the following analysis on Jay Bookman's economic thread which is pertinent here relative to the changing demographics in America because of America's recent influx of immigrants to our nation and the economic growth, as a result:

=================================

"According to the CBO, the president’s immigration-reform package, including his deferred-action program on deportation, 'would affect the economy more directly than presidential proposals usually would — by increasing the size of the labor force and changing the legal status of some current workers — and the feedback from that increase would result in significantly higher receipts from income and payroll taxes.' ”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This is what I had assumed economically would have happened to make more productive the economic viability of the nation with greater labor force of the immigrants we presently have.  I am glad to know that my instincts were sound, economically.

"Love does not divide - it only multiplies."  That truism is a response, on a metaphysical level, to the above economic facts, made into an analogy, by comparison with an economic truism:  "When the middle class thrives, all thrive." 


The mean-spiritedness of today's current Republican leaders continues to announce itself as well as their penchant for stating lies as truth.




MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

The last few sentences on my blog entry, "What's Behind the Polarization of America?":

"We are at the turning point now. That is why America is so polarized today. The stakes are higher than any one individual’s life. What is at stake is the direction the world will move in the 21st century on its continuous movement toward eternity. Will we continue to think in terms of individual survival or will we begin to think in terms of the survival of humanity, as a whole, one being in communion with all others?

https://maryelizabethsings.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/critique-of-the-1986-argentine-film-man-facing-southeast/   "

AlreadySheared
AlreadySheared

"Big picture of state’s demographic shifts: Not a pretty picture for schools"


Hmmm... 'not pretty' is kind of an ugly statement to describe a report whose main gist is increasing ethnic diversity.

Anyone got the PC Police on speed dial?


ajcreadernorthgeorgia
ajcreadernorthgeorgia

Is there a possibility that these think tank type groups could expand their reach? Dalton Public Schools is the only public school district with Hispanic majority (nearly 70%) - yet the area is NEVER mentioned in any of the stat articles about education/employment. All the items the commission mentioned are alive in the northwest mountain area - we never had a drop in school population during any of the recession years - still not back to normal -still have furlough days, but we are making it work!!!!!

MaureenDowney
MaureenDowney moderator

@ajcreadernorthgeorgia Dalton was mentioned. When Mike Carnathan talked about areas with high numbers of kids, he cited Dalton, along with Gwinnett and Hall counties.

straker
straker

An American Patriot

Outer Marker


Looks like you boys just can't handle the truth about your beloved Republican Party.

MajorDowning
MajorDowning

@MaureenDowney way to stoke the flames of fear and resentment. These readers have a real fear of others not like them. Working hard and making it has more to do with the individual than the group. I grew up poor but not in public housing. My parents were older what's sad is my father was a WWII veteran and the same attitude that is being displayed here kept him and our entire race under Jim Crow. He and others like him fought for this country and were treated unfairly when they returned home cause of their race.


I went to Atlanta Public Schools knowing and understanding this. It gave me a reason to reach higher and move forward. I graduated lost both parents the summer I turned 18 (41 days apart) during my freshmen year went on finish college, spent a couple of years reporting the news and started another career and now have two sons in college (it wasn't easy). In my life failure is and was never an option.


Parents have to understand they are responsible for the education of their children no matter their station in life. Instead of thumbing their nose at those not like them the majority (for now) should embrace the change. The fear has more to do with what they perceive is going to be a period of retaliation. Not likely. No one has the dream of being poor. Get off your high horse. In the end God will be the only JUDGE.

Wascatlady
Wascatlady

@DoubleDawg @MajorDowning @MaureenDowney Many of our Latino ELLs, by dint of hard work and parental desire, DO achieve highly.  In my area it is the white Appalachian folks who make up a large % of the non-thrivers, largely  due to laziness on their part and that of their parents.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@Wascatlady 

My father was part of the white Appalachian folks of North Carolina and he was quite a striver and thriver and taught his children to be the same.
We must size up everyone as individuals not as stereotypes, and give every person the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

DoubleDawg
DoubleDawg

@Wascatlady

do you have any data to support that?

and just so we can all be clear if the person is white and accused of being lazy or having bad parents it's ok (not filled with hate)?

Quandary
Quandary

@newsphile

There you go again.

Do you know how much the “immigrants” and I am assuming you mean the illegal ones, contribute to our economy?

Maybe the issue is about the policies of our state government.

I don’t know, but everything that ills the state of GA is not always the fault of our illegal immigrants..

newsphile
newsphile

@Quandry   I don't believe all the ills are the "fault of illegal immigrants", but the costs of helping legal immigrants open businesses should be reconsidered. I was told by the person who does my nails that she and many of her friends came to ATL because GA helps new immigrants open businesses here.  She told me she had opened one nail shop and was going to sell it and move to another county to open another shop.  According to her, there are tax breaks and other incentives for immigrants.  She talked about the advantages she got in GA over FL, TN, and TX.  She isn't the only one who has commented that he/she has been a recipient.  I don't see what they would have to gain by lying.  Those benefits aren't available to people who already live in GA.  Housing, furniture, etc. are given to refugees settling here. Feel free to look it up.  I've been happy that GA has helped many refugees, but our funds are stretched, so it many be time to take a hard look at what we can afford. 

ChuckAllison
ChuckAllison

@Quandry  I don't think that the immigrants impact on our economy should be called a "contribution".

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

My thoughts below are not meant to be personal to any reader or to any poster:


Imo, the spiritual evolution of the people of the United States, and of the people of the world, will continue reaching for our better angels and continue reaching for the Godhead.

This will not change because there is moral truth and a moral foundation of love underlying the human mind, heart, spirit.  As Thomas Jefferson wrote, "We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy, as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors."

Current Conservative Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has no understanding of this spiritual truth and he still believes that most Americans can be conned enough to believe lies for truth, imo.  One might say that this morally corrupt attempt is the "Last Hurrah" for the ultraconservative movement in America to forestall this organic spiritual evolution.

dcdcdc
dcdcdc

@MaryElizabethSings AFter your comment that MiltonMan's story about growing up in poverty, and overcoming through hard work, was somehow expressing "anger and hate", anything else you have to say is total BS.


So happy that you are no longer spewing your venomous poison in front of our young kids.  Its tragic to imagine how many minds you poisoned with your sick point of view.

newsphile
newsphile

GA has welcomed legal immigrants and refugees.  It's hard to say we can't take in more, but with the high costs of housing, furniture, funds for opening their businesses, and other things that our taxes provide for them, we may have topped out our budget.  We may have to make some hard decisions as to how we spend our dollars for a while.  Like most households, GA can't afford it all.  Do we save our public schools or do we continue funding more immigrants? 

redweather
redweather

@newsphile How exactly do our taxes pay for "housing, furniture, and funds for opening their businesses"? 

newsphile
newsphile

@redweather @newsphile   I was told by the person who does my nails that she and many of her friends came to ATL because GA helps new immigrants open businesses here.  She told me she had opened one nail shop and was going to sell it and move to another county to open another shop.  According to her, there are tax breaks and other incentives.  She talked about the advantages she got in GA over FL, TN, and TX.  She isn't the only one who has commented that he/she has been a recipient.  I don't see what they would have to gain by lying.  Housing, furniture, etc. are given to refugees settling here. Feel free to look it up. 

OriginalProf
OriginalProf

@Starik @redweather @newsphile 

So see the current migrant crisis in Europe, with Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi refugees pressing Europe by the hundreds of thousands to get to the wealthy EU West European countries... that created the original civil wars that sent them fleeing.

newsphile
newsphile

Many people are successful because they wanted a life better than what they had as children, and their parents wanted their children to have a better life.  There have always been rich and middle class families and there have always been poor families, both white and black. I have witnessed many spoiled rich and middle class kids fail in school and in life.  While it is a more difficult path to success when one is poor (many of us have been there), the desire to succeed is the key.  Looking past instant gratification and working towards the goal is a key requirement. 

Quandary
Quandary

@newsphile 

@newsphile

I agree with you up to a certain point.

Yes one needs the desire to succeed but having someone (mentor) there assisting you is crucial.

How many times have you heard a “successful” person say “I did not get here by myself?”

Maybe it was a parent, teacher, neighbor, or a friend pushing and motivating the person to succeed.

Of course, don’t let us forget about the networking. It is so important for people who have “made it” to reach back and assist someone else (so they too can make it).

It pays to have friends in high places.You better believe it….

OriginalProf
OriginalProf

Today's blog is a rather ugly one to read so far: anti-immigrant (not just anti-illegal ones), anti-black, anti-anyone who isn't in the traditional majority white demographic.  Maybe that's just because nearly all the posters (except for MaryElizabethSings) are retired boomers who don't like the changes around them.  The teachers are busy working right now. But as Georgia goes demographically, so goes the country, folks. Get used to it.  Remember that old Heraclitus said long ago: "You can't step in the same river twice."

Starik
Starik

@OriginalProf Enjoy it, OP.  It's an opportunity to experience the history lessons of the 22d century up close. 

OriginalProf
OriginalProf

@Starik @OriginalProf 

Why the 22nd century? It's the 21st century, and it's going on here in miniature as it's going on in Europe, with the pressing of the human tide of "refugees" (Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis) and "economic migrants" (sub-Saharan Africans).  We just have more space and an ocean to separate us from those now moving into Europe.

WardinConyers
WardinConyers

@OriginalProf Okay.  I understand that change is inevitable, but can we not have some civility?  I worked as a teacher in all areas from K-college and I am telling you, many students are ill-prepared for life, much less education. Many kids and their parents are clueless on how to simply behave in public.  Just look at the way we drive: many not using turn signals; blocking of the right of way; aggressive drivers who think driving is a game.  Hell, you can often tell the illegals because many of them drive too slowly in order to avoid being stopped for speeding.  Since when was the rule of law a bad thing?


DrGonzo
DrGonzo

Georgia is one of the primary destinations of illegal immigrants for some reason. Perhaps we need to start making it more difficult for them to live here. We should start by closing down 95% of the landscaping and construction firms and restaurants who make money hand over fist while exploiting these people for pennies on the dollar.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@DrGonzo 

I agree with your last sentence, but not with your second sentence.  
(Perhaps you intended for your 2nd sentence to be one of irony?)

ErnestB
ErnestB

@DrGonzo


You do realize that many immigrants work on farms in South Georgia harvesting crops.  They do the work that many US citizens no longer want to do.

DrGonzo
DrGonzo

@ErnestB @DrGonzo I still don't care. We can find other ways to harvest crops (in 10 years it's probably going to all be done by robots anyway). And my second sentence was completely accurate. These people need to go, now. They are a drain on our community, not a benefit.

ErnestB
ErnestB

@DrGonzo


You are entitled to your opinion however Agriculture plays a signification role to the overall economy in Georgia.  I'm sure there are many farmers that would disagree with your viewpoint.

cc423
cc423

@DrGonzo Remember when we scarred all the illegals all off a few years ago and all those fruits and vegetables just rotted in the fields and farmers lost millions? Good times. And before yo go off about legal American citizens doing that work, drive down 75 and see how few of them live there any more.

SaveAmericaFromItself
SaveAmericaFromItself

@DrGonzo 

The poultry and carpet industries have something to do with that, plus the endless fast-food jobs that are always hiring.

straker
straker

"by 2040"


Republicans aren't interested in anything but the short term, as shown by their disregard of the future effects of global warming.

So, don't expect them to show much concern for this future problem.

PJ25
PJ25

@straker What a partisan hack you are.  You're obviously one of those low information voters who still thinks there's a difference between the two major political parties. 

An American Patriot
An American Patriot

@Quidocetdiscit @An American Patriot @straker If I remember correctly, it was in the very early seventies that scientists were warning us that the world faced extinction from a new global ice age.  You know what I predict Quidocetdiscit?  You don't have to worry about either, you ain't gonna be around to to listen to everyone laughing at you in a hundred years.  Now, I will make a prediction.  In 200 years, the white population in America (may have changed names by then) will be the smallest minority and it won't be because everyone spends time on the beach getting a tan.

An American Patriot
An American Patriot

@straker OK Straker, tell me.  With your interest in Global Warming (you know, btw, that's it's just a myth) it would be interesting to know if you and all your global warming buddies have interests in Energy Trading Companies.  You know, global warming and cooling have been happening as long as the Earth has been here.  You folks need to admit it.......it's a MONEY THING.  There's trillions to be made in Energy Trading.